RESEARCH OF RISK ASSESSMENT PROBLEM OF CONVERGENCE TRAJECTORIES OF THE TWO DYNAMIC OBJECTS

Alexander Goloskokov, Mykhailo Brodskyi

Abstract


The statement of the risk assessment problem of convergence trajectories of dynamic objects is formulated. An example of the solution assessment problem of the convergence trajectories of two dynamic objects is considered. Modeling of aircraft traffic taking into account the influence of random perturbations in MatLab is carried out. Relative projections of the trajectories of two aircrafts are constructed. An assessment of the occurrence of a conflict situation between two dynamic objects is obtained, the results of this problem are analyzed.

The aim of research is developing an approach to risk assessment problem of convergence trajectories of dynamic objects.

The problem is solved in the test case with the given initial conditions.

Further development of the article consists in finding the probability of a conflict situation from the multidimensional Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation.

The process of aircraft traffic is described by the random Markov process of Ornstein-Uhlenbeck.conflict situation; forecasting; aircraft; conflict situation assessment; conflict probability; dynamic object; stochastic differential equation

Keywords


conflict situation; forecasting; aircraft; conflict situation assessment; conflict probability; dynamic object; stochastic differential equation

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21303/2461-4262.2017.00308

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Copyright (c) 2017 Alexander Goloskokov, Mykhailo Brodskyi

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ISSN 2461-4262 (Online), ISSN 2461-4254 (Print)