ANALYSIS OF NATURAL AND MAN-MADE THREATS FOR REGIONAL SECURITY IN UKRAINE

Sergiy Ivanyuta

Abstract


During the study the regions of the state have been considered as a multi-dynamic system with complex large-scale communications both within individual levels and between all levels. The main elements of region protection including population, industrial objects and environment were used for the analysis of functions of regional security. As such it was suggested that risk analysis at the regional level is closely linked with an analysis of threats which determine the level of region’s security. The theoretical basis of evaluation of the security regions can be associated with the reliability theory in terms of emergencies which should be considered as a failure of the substantial elements that lead to the violation of their sustainability. The methodology for assessing levels of region’s security of the state with the use of reliability theory to analyze the impact of natural and man-made threats to the protection of the main objects of the region including the components of the environment, objects and people is anticipated. This provides the opportunity to carry out a comparative analysis of regional ecological security, scientific substantiate an acceptable level of risk for each of them, as well as effectively allocate available funds to prevent negative consequences of threats between regions. On the basis of described methodology the assessment of natural and man-made threats of regional security of the Ivano-Frankivsk region of Ukraine is carried out. The hypothesis that the consequences of various emergencies at regional level are distributed on Poisson law is tested with the use of Pearson criteria. The dynamics of change of volumes of deficiency of gross regional product as a result of losses from the emergencies of different origin is analyzed. The proposed methodology for assessment of region’s security levels will allow more reasonably determine the acceptable level of risk of emergency for each of them, effectively allocate the available material and financial resources between regions to prevent the negative consequences of emergency. In general it will provide tangible improvement for the security of population, industrial objects and the environment in the conditions of various emergencies of different origin possible in the state.


Keywords


natural and man-made threats; regional security; emergency situations; risk; sources of threats; economic losses

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21303/2461-4262.2016.00080

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