ESTIMATION OF THE OVERALL TAX BURDEN ON THE ECONOMY IN UKRAINE

Valentyna Martynenko

Abstract


The estimation of the tax burden is important, since, on the one hand, its results reflect the tax system efficiency, and, on the other hands, the level of income redistribution in the national economy. The estimation of the general tax burden level on the national economy of Ukraine should be realized through the development of forecast scenarios, based on economic and mathematical modelling. The economists have not yet sufficiently worked out the problems of the predictive assessment of the tax system efficiency through the introduction of a scenario approach, economic-mathematical modelling and extrapolation of dynamics series. It is necessary to evaluate and to develop scenarios for forecasting the level of the overall tax burden on the national economy of Ukraine. The modelling of the influence of GDP dynamics on the volume of tax revenues and a unified social tax is implemented. The method of calculating the level of the overall tax burden on the national economy is proposed. The scenarios for forecasting the total tax burden on the Ukrainian economy have been developed. It is proved that in Ukraine, by the end of 2017, one third of the revenues in the national economy is redistributed through the fiscal system, while in 2004 the tax burden made only a quarter of GDP. Thus, it is established, that over the next 5 years, the overall tax burden on the national economy will increase (growth may range from +0.9 to +4 %).

Keywords


direct taxation; indirect taxation; unified social tax; national economy; GDP dynamics

Full Text:

PDF

References


Atkinson, A. B. (1979). Horizontal equity and the distribution of the tax burden. The Economics of Taxation. Washington: Brookings, 3–18.

Reed, W. R., Rogers, C. L. (2006). Tax Burden and the Mismeasurement of State Tax Policy. Public Finance Review, 34 (4), 404–426. doi: http://doi.org/10.1177/1091142106288406

Kaplow, L. (2010). The theory of taxation and public economics. New Jersey: Princeton University Press. doi: http://doi.org/10.1515/9781400839223

Spengel, C., Li, W., Zinn, B., Finke, K. (2011). The computation and comparison of the effective tax burden in four Asian countries. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 52 (1), 13–39.

Tiwari, A. K. (2012). Tax burden and GDP: evidence from frequency Doman approach for the USA. Economics Bulletin, 32 (1), 147–159.

Yefymenko, T. I., Sokolovska, A. M., Ozerchuk, O. V.; Yefymenko, T. I., Sokolovska, A. M. (Eds.) (2013). Dynamika podatkovoho navantazhennia v Ukraini v konteksti realizatsii podatkovoi reformy [Dynamics of tax burden in Ukraine in the context of tax reform implementation]. Kyiv: DNNU “Akademiia finansovoho upravlinnia”, 492.

Martynenko, V. V. (2018). On the problem of tax system optimization in Ukraine. Scientific Bulletin of Polissia, 1 (2 (14)), 129–134. doi: http://doi.org/10.25140/2410-9576-2018-2-2(14)-129-134

Martynenko, V. (2019). Assessment of favourableness for the tax system of ukraine in the international context. Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, 5 (2), 124–130. doi: http://doi.org/10.30525/2256-0742/2019-5-2-124-130

Gross domestic product (1990–2017). Available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2005/vvp/vvp_ric/vvp_e.htm

Tax revenue. Available at: http://cost.ua/en/budget/revenue/#1

Pension Fund. Available at: http://cost.ua/en/budget/revenue/pension/

Consumer price indices for goods and services in 2002–2018 (year to previous year). Available at: http://www.ukrstat.gov.ua/operativ/operativ2008/ct/cn_rik/icsR/iscR_e/isc_tp_rik_e.htm

Paying Taxes Methodology. Available at: https://www.doingbusiness.org/en/methodology/paying-taxes

Paying Taxes 2019. Available at: https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/paying-taxes/pdf/pwc-paying-taxes-2019.pdf

Paying Taxes. Available at: http://www.doingbusiness.org/en/data/exploretopics/paying-taxes




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21303/2504-5571.2019.00947



Copyright (c) 2019 Valentyna Martynenko

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

ISSN 2504-5571 (Online), ISSN 2504-5563 (Print)