Valentyna Martynenko


The estimation of the tax burden is important, since, on the one hand, its results reflect the tax system efficiency, and, on the other hands, the level of income redistribution in the national economy. The estimation of the general tax burden level on the national economy of Ukraine should be realized through the development of forecast scenarios, based on economic and mathematical modelling. The economists have not yet sufficiently worked out the problems of the predictive assessment of the tax system efficiency through the introduction of a scenario approach, economic-mathematical modelling and extrapolation of dynamics series. It is necessary to evaluate and to develop scenarios for forecasting the level of the overall tax burden on the national economy of Ukraine. The modelling of the influence of GDP dynamics on the volume of tax revenues and a unified social tax is implemented. The method of calculating the level of the overall tax burden on the national economy is proposed. The scenarios for forecasting the total tax burden on the Ukrainian economy have been developed. It is proved that in Ukraine, by the end of 2017, one third of the revenues in the national economy is redistributed through the fiscal system, while in 2004 the tax burden made only a quarter of GDP. Thus, it is established, that over the next 5 years, the overall tax burden on the national economy will increase (growth may range from +0.9 to +4 %).


direct taxation; indirect taxation; unified social tax; national economy; GDP dynamics

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